HexBot: Forex Signal Analysis

HexBot analyses the forex market and tells you what it found — including when it found nothing worth acting on. Every other signal app shows you a number. HexBot shows you where the number came from. WHAT YOU SEE • A win probability with the sample size behind it and a 95% confidence interval around it — together, always • Expectancy in R: what a setup returns per unit risked, after costs • A plain-language reason for every call, and for every refusal • A suggested stop and position size, worked out before you act • The setups it rejected, and which test each one failed A figure measured over 63 results and a figure measured over 6 look nothing alike here, because the band around the second one is visibly too wide to act on. WHEN THE EVIDENCE IS THIN, IT SAYS WAIT Below 30 out-of-sample results in the current market regime, HexBot will not call a trade. The setup is labelled experimental and the answer is WAIT — not as an error, as the answer. Most sessions contain candles where the honest output is "nothing here", and you will see them. HOW THE NUMBERS ARE PRODUCED Strategy variations are backtested on real price history. A signal on one candle is filled at the next candle's open, never the signal candle's close, which nobody can actually trade. Spread, commission, slippage and swap are charged against every result. When a candle's range covers both the stop and the target, the stop is recorded. Which came first is unknowable from OHLC data, so the worse outcome is assumed. Assuming the target instead is how backtests produce results that do not survive contact with a live account. History is split into in-sample and out-of-sample with a purge gap at the boundary, and only out-of-sample results produce the figures you see. They are counted per strategy family and per market regime — trending or ranging; low, normal or high volatility — and never blended across regimes. WHY EXPECTANCY, NOT WIN RATE Win nine trades in ten with losses five times the size of the wins, and the account still goes down. Win thirty-five in a hundred at 3:1 and it goes up. Win rate alone cannot tell those two apart. Expectancy can, and it is what HexBot ranks on. WHAT HEXBOT IS NOT • It is not connected to a broker. There is no account, no balance, no order. • It does not place, execute or manage trades. It cannot move money, and it never sees yours. • It is not a fund, a managed service, or a copy-trading platform. • It is not financial advice. It knows nothing about your circumstances, your obligations, or your tolerance for loss. HexBot is an analysis and education tool. Every decision made with it is yours. WHILE THE APP IS CLOSED The analysis runs on the server, so a call that clears every gate reaches you with the app closed and the screen off, with the same figures attached. MARKETS Forex majors and crosses, gold, indices and crypto. Each instrument carries its own pip size and contract value, so a stop on gold is priced as gold rather than as a currency pair. RISK Historical probabilities describe the past. They are not predictions, and they are not promises about the future. Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and the majority of retail investor accounts lose money. Never commit capital you cannot afford to lose. If you are unsure, take advice from an independent, licensed financial adviser. A The Bughex product.