Track Prophet

SWB Track Prophet – Horse Racing Simulator & Analysis Analyze the numbers. Simulate the race. Explore the possibilities. SWB Track Prophet combines racing statistics, mathematical modeling, and Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate horses and project potential race outcomes. The Mathematics Behind Track Prophet Every horse enters a race with distinct strengths, experience, and performance profiles. Track Prophet evaluates these variables simultaneously through a multi-factor mathematical model: Performance History: Starts, Win %, and Top 3 % reflect demonstrated baseline consistency. Speed & Class: Average Speed and High Speed gauge raw pace potential, while Average Class provides context regarding the caliber of prior competition. Pace Ratings: Early, Middle, and Finish ratings evaluate stage-by-stage race dynamics. By analyzing these metrics collectively, Track Prophet compares each entrant against the entire field to assess relative competitive strength. Statistical Strength and Reliability Track Prophet computes several analytical indicators: Base Strength: Core talent derived from underlying performance figures. Trusted Conversion: Calibrates figures against sample sizes and consistency. Total Strength: Comprehensive weighted capability score within the context of the field. Uncertainty: Quantifies variance and data limitations (e.g., experienced runners versus horses with sparse past performances). Monte Carlo Simulation Horse racing is inherently variable; strong past performances do not guarantee a victory. Rather than computing a single deterministic result, Track Prophet uses Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate thousands of alternative race dynamics. Each simulated run models realistic race volatility. Across the entire distribution of runs, the software tabulates how frequently each horse finishes in various positions. Key outputs include: Predicted Win % Predicted Top 3 % Predicted PWR (Power Score) (Note: Projections reflect mathematical probability distributions rather than guaranteed outcomes.) How to Use Track Prophet Import Your Racing Data Load a CSV file containing your field data. Entries automatically populate into individual horse cards. Customize Your Field Adjust field size and toggle participation checkboxes to add or scratch horses without rebuilding your dataset. Review and Edit Statistics Expand any horse card to adjust input metrics, including: Starts, Win %, and Top 3 % Average Speed and High Speed Average Class Early, Middle, and Finish ratings Days Off Run Prophet Set your desired simulation iterations and run the analysis. All computations execute locally on your device—no external accounts or network requests required. Explore Your Results Review ranked cards displaying finishing distributions, win probabilities, total strength metrics, and uncertainty indices. Copy and Export Use Copy CSV to move values directly to your clipboard, or Save CSV to export files for historical tracking and external models. Built for Racing Enthusiasts Compare historical forms, evaluate matchups, and explore variance using quantitative modeling. Subscription Required: SWB Track Prophet requires an active subscription to access the simulator. Eligible new subscribers receive a 30-day free trial, followed by $99.99 per month. Subscriptions renew automatically unless canceled through Google Play. Advertising: SWB Track Prophet contains advertisements. An active subscription provides access to the racing simulator but does not remove advertisements. Disclaimer: Track Prophet is designed for entertainment and statistical modeling purposes. Projections are mathematical estimates based on user data and assumptions; they do not guarantee real-world racing results or financial returns.